Fitch: Trade, Rates Are Key to Trump Presidency's Canada Impact

A possible shift in US trade policy under President-elect Donald Trump
and moves in government bond yields are likely to be the key potential
implications of a Trump presidency on Canada’s sovereign credit profile,
Fitch Ratings says.

Trump’s pledge to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement
(NAFTA) would have direct consequences for Canada. The US is by far
Canada’s largest export market, receiving 76% of its exports last year.
The Canadian government has indicated a willingness to discuss
renegotiation, citing potential benefits for Canada to a review of the
trade agreement.

Whether the new administration will view trade with Canada in the same
terms as trade with Mexico, which Trump had threatened with large import
tariffs during his presidential campaign, is not clear. US trade with
Canada, which totaled USD662.7bn in 2015 according to US government
estimates, is broadly balanced, and much …