May 8 Canada escalated a trade dispute
with United States by making threats Washington called
inappropriate in part because Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is
under pressure to secure support in a key region ahead of the
country’s 2019 elections.
Washington last month slapped tariffs on timber imports,
alleging they are unfairly subsidized, prompting Trudeau to say
he was considering a ban on exports of U.S. coal through Pacific
As well as lumber, the administration of U.S. President
Donald Trump has targeted Canadian dairy farmers, while Boeing
Corp launched a trade challenge against Montreal-based
planemaker Bombardier Inc.
All three are vital to the economy of Quebec, Canada’s
second most-populous province. And Quebec is seen as vital to
Trudeau’s hopes of maintaining a strong grip on power in a
national election set for October 2019.
As contentious talks on renegotiating NAFTA draw ever
closer, Trudeau has little choice but to defend dairy farmers
and offer help to the lumber industry, even though that is
likely to prompt fresh U.S. challenges.
“Quebec is the key,” said one senior Liberal organizer.
The predominantly French-speaking province holds 78 of the
338 seats in the House of Commons and Liberals acknowledge they
need to win extra seats there to offset expected losses
elsewhere in 2019.
The challenge is that the Liberals won 40 seats in Quebec in
2015, which was far more than expected.
The Liberals say they can capture another 10 to 15 seats,
but only if everything goes their way. This in effect means
showing support for the dairy industry – and its industry’s
influential lobby – amid a fresh attack from Washington.
The United States has long complained about Canada’s system
of domestic protections for its dairy industry, which bars most
imports and keeps prices high. Trump last month branded the
industry “a disgrace.”
The system is unpopular in large parts of Canada, where
people complain about paying high prices for milk and cheese.
Trudeau, however, has little choice but to defend it.
Christian Bourque, a pollster for Leger Marketing, noted
there are dairy farms in every part of Quebec.
“If you’re seen as attacking farming and the land, it’s
probably easy for the farmers’ union to get Quebeckers onside.
You don’t necessarily want to forget farmers,” he said in an
While observers say there is little risk of Trudeau being
defeated outright in 2019, the danger for the Liberals is losing
enough seats to lose their majority, forcing them to rely on
opposition parties to govern and pass budgets. This would
inevitably mean political compromises and a diluted policy
The Liberals have so far tried to maintain calm as tensions
on trade ratchet up, relying on a series of visits from cabinet
ministers and senior officials to key states and constituencies
to press the message that trade benefits both sides.
BARK VS BITE
The outreach efforts will continue, according to a source
familiar with official strategy, adding that Ottawa will show
its teeth where necessary.
“Do people honestly expect the Canadian government just to
say ‘We accept these lumber duties, we will move on and pay the
price?'” asked the source, who requested anonymity given the
sensitivity of the situation.
In a sign of the mounting pressures, former Quebec Liberal
premier Jean Charest said Ottawa should consider loan guarantees
to affected firms to help them pay for the tariffs.
“It is very black and white now: either the government
supports them or they will just close down,” he said in an
Although giving such aid could prompt fresh challenges from
the U.S. industry, insiders make clear the Ottawa government has
In the short term, Trudeau faces few immediate threats.
Polls show the Liberals well ahead of the opposition
Conservatives and New Democrats, both of which have stand-in
leaders and will not choose permanent replacements until later
“He’s had an exceptionally long honeymoon, he’s still having
a honeymoon, but that has a lot to do with the absence of
opposition,” said pollster Nik Nanos.
Although being seen to openly favor one province or region
over another can be politically fatal in Canada, Liberal
sensitivity toward Quebec is clear.
When it came time to deciding on federal aid to Bombardier –
a company which has already received billions in subsidies from
Ottawa – the Liberals made clear the only question was not if,
but how much.
Party operatives also admitted relief after it became clear
the government would not have to decide before the 2019 election
on whether to allow TransCanada Corp to build a crude
oil pipeline across Quebec.
Environmentalists and aboriginal activists had promised
high-profile protests that senior Quebec Liberals said they
feared could hurt the party’s political chances.
(Additional reporting by Andrea Hopkins, editing by G Crosse)