By Leah Schnurr
OTTAWA (Reuters) – If the Bank of Canada caught markets by surprise last week in laying the groundwork for interest rate hikes, it may have been because traders missed – or ignored – signals the central bank was already sending.
Hawkish comments from the bank’s two top policymakers last week sent the Canadian dollar up 1.7 percent over two days, its best two-day run in a year, as markets recalibrated the risk that rate increases could be coming sooner than had been expected. The Canadian dollar has since declined slightly though it is still stronger than it was before a speech by a senior Bank of Canada official last Monday.
Some analysts said the bank began moving away from its dovish stance with policy statements in April and May that forecast the closing of the output gap would happen sooner and described recent economic data as “encouraging.”
Governor Stephen Poloz in April characterized the bank’s stance as “decidedly neutral.” That represented a significant shift in tone that markets did not fully grasp, which may have frustrated the central bank, said Frances Donald, senior economist at Manulife Asset Management.
“The Bank of Canada may be trying to correct the long impression of them as ongoingly dovish as opposed to shifting to a new tone,” Donald said of policymakers’ recent remarks.
The apparent gap in understanding between the central bank and markets illustrates the balancing act policymakers face in preparing the market for eventual tightening without boxing themselves into a corner as the economy faces a number of risks that could postpone a hike, particularly uncertain U.S. trade policy.
In a speech last Monday, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins said the bank will assess whether the rate cuts it put in place in 2015 during the oil price shock are still needed. That was followed the next day by Poloz saying those cuts have largely done their work.
A spokeswoman for the Bank of Canada said the bank could not comment further.
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